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Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history

Dwarkesh Patel4h 32m

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Dwarkesh Patel | Dwarkesh Podcast

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1Aula1h 20mOpenAI researcher on agent swarms & recursive self-improvement
2Aula1h 37mAI researchers debate how close we are to recursive self-improvement
3Aula2h 20mAjeya Cotra – "This might be the clearest warning shot we ever get"
4Aula1h 16mDylan Patel – Two labs will soon control most of the world's workforce
5Aula2h 12mRyan Greenblatt – What happens once AI can automate AI research?
6Aula1h 38mGeneral relativity from first principles – Adam Brown
7Aula1h 33mGrant Sanderson (@3blue1brown) – AI disproved a famous math conjecture. Now what?
8Aula2h 08mMachiavelli is the most misunderstood thinker of all time – Ada Palmer
9Aula1h 02mSarah Paine - Why Putin and Xi can't escape geography
10Aula1h 16mThe better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell
11Aula1h 20mChip design from the bottom up – Reiner Pope
12Aula2h 37mWhat rebuilding AlphaGo teaches us about self-play, RL, and future of LLMs - Eric Jang
13Aula2h 13mDavid Reich – Bronze Age shock, the Neanderthal puzzle, & the sudden spread of farming
14Aula2h 13mHow GPT, Claude, and Gemini are actually trained and served – Reiner Pope
15Aula1h 43mJensen Huang – Will Nvidia’s moat persist?
16Aula2h 03mMichael Nielsen – Why aliens will have a different tech stack than us
17Aula1h 23mTerence Tao – How the world’s top mathematician uses AI
18Aula2h 30mDylan Patel — The single biggest bottleneck to scaling AI compute
19Aula2h 02mWhy Leonardo was a saboteur, Gutenberg went broke, and Florence was weird – Ada Palmer
20Aula2h 22mDario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”
21Aula2h 49mElon Musk – "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
22Aula1h 49mAdam Marblestone – AI is missing something fundamental about the brain
23Aula1h 54mSarah Paine – Why Russia Lost the Cold War
24Aula1h 36mIlya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research
25Aula1h 28mSatya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI
26Aula1h 31mSarah Paine — How Russia sabotaged China's rise
27Aula2h 26mAndrej Karpathy — “We’re summoning ghosts, not building animals”
28Aula1h 20m“I find it almost disturbing that the universe favors life this strongly” – Nick Lane
29Aula1h 07mRichard Sutton – Father of RL thinks LLMs are a dead end
30Aula1h 28mFully autonomous robots are much closer than you think – Sergey Levine
31Aula1h 36mSarah Paine – How Hitler almost starved Britain
32Aula1h 45mEvolution designed us to die fast; we can change that — Jacob Kimmel
33Aula1h 08mChina is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
34Aula1h 08mArtificial meat is harder than artificial intelligence — Lewis Bollard
35Aula1h 56mSarah Paine — How Imperial Japan defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China
36Aula2h 13mStephen Kotkin — How Stalin became the most powerful dictator in history
37Aula1h 34mA billion years of evolution in a single afternoon — George Church
38Aula2h 27mWhy China's manufacturing economy is dominating — Arthur Kroeber
39Aula1h 36m"China is digging out of a crisis. And America’s luck is wearing thin." — Ken Rogoff
40Aula1h 29mXi Jinping’s paranoid approach to AGI, debt crisis, & Politburo politics — Victor Shih
41Aula2h 24mIs RL + LLMs enough for AGI? — Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken
42Aula1h 15mMark Zuckerberg — AI will write most Meta code in 18 months
43Aula1h 24mWhy Rome actually fell: plagues, slavery, & ice age — Kyle Harper
44Aula3h 09mAGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu
45Aula3h 05mAI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
46Aula49mAMA: career advice given AGI, how I research ft. Sholto & Trenton
47Aula1h 53mJoseph Henrich — Humans defeated smarter species with cultural evolution
48Aula1h 16mSatya Nadella — Microsoft’s AGI plan & quantum breakthrough
49Aula2h 15mJeff Dean & Noam Shazeer — 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
50Aula1h 49mSarah Paine — How Mao conquered China (lecture & interview)
51Aula2h 07mSarah Paine — Why Japan lost WWII (lecture & interview)
52Aula2h 13mSarah Paine — The war for India (Lecture & interview)
53Aula1h 00mTyler Cowen — The #1 bottleneck to AI progress is humans
54Aula2h 44mAdam Brown — Bubble universes, space elevators, & AdS/CFT
55Aula1h 36mGwern — Anonymous writer who predicted AI trajectory on $12K/year salary
56Aula2h 10m@Asianometry & Dylan Patel — How the semiconductor industry actually works
$Daniel Yergin — Oil destroyed Hitler, fracking destroyed Putin$ 57Aula1h 28mDaniel Yergin — Oil destroyed Hitler, fracking destroyed Putin
58Aula1h 57mDavid Reich — How one small tribe conquered the world 70,000 years ago
59Aula2h 31mJoe Carlsmith — Preventing an AI takeover
60Aula2h 02mPatrick McKenzie — Money laundering, big tech censorship, SBF & Japan
61Aula52mTony Blair — Why political leaders keep failing at major change
62Aula1h 34mFrancois Chollet — Why the biggest AI models can't solve simple puzzles
63Aula4h 32mLeopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history
A seguir64Aula1h 35mJohn Schulman (OpenAI Cofounder) — Reasoning, RLHF, & plan for 2027 AGI
65Aula1h 18mMark Zuckerberg — Llama 3, $10B models, Caesar Augustus, & 1 GW datacenters
66Aula3h 13mSholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken — How LLMs actually think
67Aula1h 01mDemis Hassabis — Scaling, superhuman AIs, AlphaZero atop LLMs, AlphaFold
68Aula1h 55mPatrick Collison — Why Silicon Valley's most talented should leave
69Aula1h 42mTyler Cowen — Hayek, Keynes, & Smith on AI, animal spirits, anarchy, & growth
70Aula1h 31mJung Chang (Wild Swans author) — Living through history's largest man-made famine
71Aula1h 18mAndrew Roberts — Why Hitler lost WWII, Churchill as applied historian, & Napoleon as startup founder
72Aula2h 35mDominic Cummings — Inside the collapse of western government
73Aula3h 07mPaul Christiano — Preventing an AI takeover
74Aula44mShane Legg (DeepMind Founder) — 2028 AGI, superhuman alignment, new architectures
75Aula1h 31mGrant Sanderson (@3blue1brown) — Past, present, & future of mathematics
76Aula2h 24mSarah C. M. Paine — Why dictators keep making the same fatal mistake
77Aula1h 34mGeorge Hotz vs Eliezer Yudkowsky
78Aula1h 58mDario Amodei (Anthropic CEO) — The hidden pattern behind every AI breakthrough
79Aula2h 22mAndy Matuschak — The reason most learning tools fail
80Aula3h 07mCarl Shulman (Pt 2) — AI Takeover, bio & cyber attacks, detecting deception, & humanity's far future
81Aula2h 43mCarl Shulman (Pt 1) — Intelligence explosion, primate evolution, robot doublings, & alignment
82Aula2h 37mRichard Rhodes — The making of the atomic bomb
83Aula4h 03mEliezer Yudkowsky — Why AI will kill us, aligning LLMs, nature of intelligence, SciFi, & rationality
84Aula47mIlya Sutskever (OpenAI Chief Scientist) — Why next-token prediction could surpass human intelligence
85Aula1h 38mNat Friedman (Github CEO) — Reading ancient scrolls, open source, & AI
86Aula2h 37mBrett Harrison — FTX US former president speaks out
87Aula1h 20mMarc Andreessen — AI, crypto, 1000 Elon Musks, regrets, vulnerabilities, & managerial revolution
88Aula1h 14mGarett Jones — Immigration, national IQ, & less democracy
89Aula1h 39mLars Doucet — Progress, poverty, Georgism, & why rent is too damn high
90Aula1h 56mHolden Karnofsky — History's most important century
91Aula1h 25mBethany McLean — Enron, FTX, 2008, Musk, frauds, & visionaries
92Aula1h 22mNadia Asparouhova — Tech elites, democracy, open source, & philanthropy
93Aula1h 30mByrne Hobart - FTX, Drugs, Twitter, Taiwan, & Monasticism
94Aula57mEdward Glaeser - Cities, Terrorism, Housing, & Remote Work
95Aula1h 33mKenneth T. Jackson - Robert Moses, Hero of New York?
96Aula2h 25mBrian Potter - Future of Construction, Ugly Modernism, & Environmental Review
97Aula2h 05mBryan Caplan - Feminists, Billionaires, and Demagogues
98Aula1h 34mTyler Cowen - Why Society Will Collapse & Why Sex is Pessimistic
99Aula1h 32mCharles C. Mann - Americas Before Columbus & Scientific Wizardry
100Aula2h 24mAustin Vernon - Energy Superabundance, Starship Missiles, & Finding Alpha
101Aula2h 21mSteve Hsu - Intelligence, Embryo Selection, & The Future of Humanity
102Aula57mWill MacAskill - Longtermism, Effective Altruism, History, & Technology
103Aula1h 32mJoseph Carlsmith - Utopia, AI, & Infinite Ethics
104Aula2h 20mFin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship
105Aula1h 23mAlexander Mikaberidze - Napoleon, War, Progress, and Global Order
106Aula46mSam Bankman-Fried - Crypto, FTX, Altruism, & Leadership
107Aula1h 04mAgustin Lebron - Trading, Crypto, and Adverse Selection
108Aula54mAnanyo Bhattacharya - John von Neumann, Jewish Genius, and Nuclear War
109Aula50mManifold Markets Founder - Predictions Markets & Revolutionizing Governance
110Aula1h 40mPradyu Prasad - Imperial Japan, the God Emperor, and Militarization in the Modern World
111Aula1h 04mRazib Khan - Genomics, Intelligence, and The Church of Science
112Aula1h 08mJimmy Soni - Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, and the Paypal Mafia
113Aula1h 03mBryan Caplan - Labor Econ Versus the World
114Aula1h 02mRichard Hanania - Foreign Policy, Fertility, and Experts
115Aula1h 24mDavid Deutsch - AI, America, Fun, & Bayes
116Aula1h 11mByrne Hobart - Optionality, Stagnation, and Secret Societies
117Aula1h 23mDavid Friedman - Dating Markets, Legal Systems, Bitcoin, and Automation
118Aula58mSarah Fitz-Claridge - Taking Children Seriously | The Lunar Society #15
119Aula1h 37mMichael Huemer - Anarchy, Capitalism, and Progress
120Aula45mUncle Bob - The Long Reach of Code, Automating Programming, and Developing Coding Talent
121Aula1h 27mScott Aaronson - Quantum Computing, Complexity, and Creativity
122Aula1h 38mScott Young - Ultralearning, The MIT Challenge
123Aula1h 52mCharles Murray - Human Accomplishment and the Future of Liberty | The Lunar Society #10
124Aula1h 26mAlex Tabarrok - Prizes, Prices, and Public Goods
125Aula55mCaleb Watney - America's Innovation Engine
126Aula1h 40mRobin Hanson - The Long View and The Elephant in the Brain
127Aula48mJason Crawford - The Roots of Progress & the History of Technology
128Aula34mMatjaž Leonardis - Science, Identity and Probability
129Aula46mTyler Cowen - The Great Reset
130Aula57mBryan Caplan - Nurturing Orphaned Ideas, Education, and UBI

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